Thesis
Better robots need a working world around them.
Our view: as robots do more physical work, new companies will make that work understandable, dependable and commercially usable. We invest in those companies.
The five stages
01Teach It
Data, models and simulationRobots learn a task from data, simulation and people who know the job.
What gets built
- Training data for physical tasks
- Simulation and test worlds for robot learning
- Task packages and data-rights clearing
Our question
Who owns the data, and who gets paid when it is reused?
Read our Teach It view02Test It
Evaluation, safety and certificationSomeone has to show the robot is safe, secure and fit for the job.
What gets built
- Evaluation against real tasks
- Safety certification and compliance records
- Robot cybersecurity and machine identity
Our question
Who signs off, and what happens when a robot fails?
Read our Test It view03Run It
Fleets, orchestration and uptimeSomeone schedules the work, shares the site and keeps the fleet up.
What gets built
- Orchestration for fleets from several makers
- Site integration with doors, lifts and chargers
- Remote operations and exception handling
Our question
Does this still matter when the robot maker bundles its own software?
Read our Run It view04Fix It
Field service, parts and repairWhen a robot stops, someone diagnoses it, finds the part and fixes it.
What gets built
- Field service dispatch and remote diagnostics
- Parts, refurbishment and remanufacturing
- Service histories that move with the robot
Our question
Who holds the right to repair, and who holds the parts?
Read our Fix It view05Insure/Finance It
Risk, insurance and capitalSomeone prices the risk, pays for the fleet and settles what went wrong.
What gets built
- Risk data and underwriting tools for insurers
- Incident records and claims evidence
- Software for robot leasing and fleet finance
Our question
Who carries the liability when the work goes wrong?
Read our Insure/Finance It view
Every machine wave
The same five jobs, every time.
The machine gets the headlines. The economy around it does much of the work. Here is how earlier machines created businesses at each stage, and the row for robots that is being built now.
| Wave | 01Teach | 02Test | 03Run | 04Fix | 05Insure/Finance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cars | Driving schools | Crash testing | Fuel stations and fleets | Repair shops and parts | Auto insurance and auto loans |
| Airplanes | Flight schools and simulators | Type certification | Airlines and air traffic control | Maintenance, repair and overhaul | Aircraft leasing and aviation insurance |
| AI | Training data and labeling | Evaluations and red-teaming | Model operations | Monitoring and incident response | Compute financing |
| Robots | Being built nowData, models and simulation | Being built nowEvaluation, safety and certification | Being built nowFleets, orchestration and uptime | Being built nowField service, parts and repair | Being built nowRisk, insurance and capital |
Cars
- Teach
- Driving schools
- Test
- Crash testing
- Run
- Fuel stations and fleets
- Fix
- Repair shops and parts
- Insure/Finance
- Auto insurance and auto loans
Airplanes
- Teach
- Flight schools and simulators
- Test
- Type certification
- Run
- Airlines and air traffic control
- Fix
- Maintenance, repair and overhaul
- Insure/Finance
- Aircraft leasing and aviation insurance
AI
- Teach
- Training data and labeling
- Test
- Evaluations and red-teaming
- Run
- Model operations
- Fix
- Monitoring and incident response
- Insure/Finance
- Compute financing
Robots
- Teach
- Being built now
- Test
- Being built now
- Insure/Finance
- Being built now
Any body shape
We back the work, whatever the robot looks like.
Humanoids may reach homes over the long term. Specialized robots already work in warehouses, farms and labs. Most sites will run mixed fleets. All three need teaching, testing, operations, repair and risk cover, so we invest across them.
What we look for
What a strong company proves early.
- 01A customer pays for a narrow product today.
- 02Customers keep using it without being pushed.
- 03The company holds the interfaces and data rights it depends on.
- 04Delivery costs work as the company grows.
- 05There is a credible path to the next round.
Candor
Where we could be wrong.
A large robot economy can exist while independent companies around it capture little value. Robot makers may bundle the service we like. Open-source projects may give it away. We test every idea against the maker's bundle, the incumbent tool and the manual process before we invest.
The stages